A professional gamer shares his over / under picks for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Sammy Watkins and more – The Athletic

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Let’s check out the Sunday Night and Monday Night player props of interest to BetPrep and NBCSports gambling pro Brad Feinberg BetPrep database which is accessible for free in case you are looking for similar information for other players.

Strong game

Mecole Hardman UNDER 3.5 catches vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sunday Night: Feinberg’s strongest game on Sunday night was discussed in detail in his Givin Props podcast. This is where you can listen to find out why.

Leans

Sammy Watkins receiving OVER 38.5 yards vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday Night: If we go back 30 games, Watkins is 62.5% over. But that’s not why Feinberg likes Watkins here. Nor is it the game of revenge against the Chiefs. Watkins is on a new team and seems to play a bigger role than we are used to from him. Last week he had eight targets, four of which he brought in for 96 yards. It was Baltimore’s single-minded, longest-range recipient. He was in the field for 82% of Week 1 snaps. “I liked Watkins’ season over / under for getting yards when it was less than 500 yards,” Feinberg said. “Now he’s almost 100 yards in week 1 and his over / under for the next game stays exactly where it was at 38.5. This should be at least 10 meters higher and this difference can easily be the profit if it lands between 39 and 48. “

Allen Lazard UNDER 32.5 yards vs. Lions, Monday Night: “That’s not a huge sum,” said Feinberg. “Randall Cobb was only on the field on less than 30% of the snapshots, less than half as many times as Lazard. But I just don’t like Lazard. ”Also, Feinberg noted that the game script will likely work against Lazard as the Packers are strong favorites and may not be forced to fold for a good portion of the game. And Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who himself is a decent OVER game at only 38.5, admits Feinberg, seems to be the clear number 2 recipient; he actually outsmarted Davante Adams in week 1. While Valdes-Scantling’s snap rate was similar to Lazard’s, he was thrown twice as often. And MVS had nearly 130 air yards, compared to just 35 for Lazard.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 12 rush attempts against ravens. Sunday Night: It’s 13 with juice on the bottom, so, Feinberg said, you can get 12 tries if you’re looking for five or 10 minutes. Always invest this time. “When you shop for cheaper lines, your betting IQ increases more than anything else.” Edwards-Helaire has averaged 14 carries per game for his career and has exceeded 12 dead 57% of the time. In his one game against the Ravens, he had 20 rushes. “In Week 1, Edwards-Helaire had 72% snapshots up from 49% in 2020. That’s a big change in terms of expected opportunities.” It should increase its total similarly as it moves on, as there are almost 50% more snapshots .

No game

Aaron Rodgers Over / Under 2.5 Passing TDs vs. Lions, Monday Night: He’s 12-5 in the last 17 games. “But I pale Rodgers TD props for the season since he had so many (20) up close (most of them this century),” Feinberg said. “I know the narrative is that it will come out red hot, but throwing three TDs is a very difficult task.” That goes even against the screwed-up Lions secondary school, which allowed the Niners 11 yards per pass attempt in week 1.

Tyreek Hill receiving over / under 88.5 yards vs. Ravens, Sunday Night: Anyone who’s seen the excellent Manning cast (for lack of a better word) on Monday Night Football knows that Peyton mostly killed the Ravens for playing so much zero-coverage. He said that’s how the team works. Ray Lewis talked about game art by showing that look and coming out after an audible against the quarterback expecting it and calling a thug so it wouldn’t even be audible. If the Ravens play some lightning attacks and man-marking on Sunday night, Hill will likely undo that as he did in one of his two previous matches against Wink Martindale’s defense (139 yards, 77 in the other matchup). “But 89 yards are hard to come by (it’s a pace of 1,513 yards) and I just don’t see enough edge here.” said Feinberg.

(Photo above: AP Photo / Charlie Riedel; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM using the links in the article above)

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